The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

The Washington Post reports that the new DCCC planned ad campaign includes a major Western New York buy of $2.7 million. That buy is split between the three contested seats in NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29.

(via The Albany Project)

The Politico reports that Jim Walsh [NY-25] cut a $1,000 donation to Edolphus "Ed" Towns, a Democrat from NY-10. Towns has been in Congress for 25 years, representing a district that's been Democratic since the 1940's.

In other words, Ed's not only a Democrat, he doesn't need the money. Yet, as far as I can tell, Walsh has given nothing to Randy Kuhl. I think that says more about Walsh than it does about Kuhl, but what, exactly, it says about Walsh is beyond my ken.

The Messenger-Post's money story gets it about right: this is a close race. I've looked through the Massa and Kuhl fundraising reports, and both reflect tough realities for each candidate.

Massa's hard reality is that his nut is much bigger than Kuhl's. He is running two fully-staffed campaign offices, and his payroll is bigger than Kuhl's. One of the many benefits of incumbency is that Kuhl can have a presence throughout the district without spending a penny. Massa doesn't have that luxury, and he spent $120K more than Kuhl this cycle, mainly on office expenses.

Kuhl's burden is that PACs aren't going to cut it. Last cycle, he got twice as much money from PACs as he did from individuals. This quarter, those numbers were almost even. At this point in 2006, he had almost $100K more in PAC money than he did at the end of June.

Kuhl is almost even with where he was last cycle, and he's had to make up the PAC shortfall by soliciting big-money donors in the district. Though his effort there is impressive, he doesn't seem to be able to match Massa's volume of small-money donors. This quarter, 30% of Massa's donors gave less than $250, versus 15% of Kuhl's. Massa gets a number of contributions via ActBlue, a clearinghouse for Democrats who want to give to a number of different candidates.

Overall, Kuhl is almost exactly where he was in 2006. Massa has raised almost three times what he did in 2006. If the trend continues, Massa will surpass his $3 million goal, which is double what Kuhl raised in 2006.

The Kuhl campaign has issued a press release stating that they raised $333K last quarter. His numbers have not hit the FEC website as of this post.

Kuhl's cash on hand at the end of the last quarter was $365K, so Kuhl probably ended the quarter with less cash on hand than Massa.

Update: Kuhl's report has been posted. According to the FEC, Kuhl raised $334K last quarter, spent $81K, and ends the quarter with $619K cash on hand.

The Massa campaign's fundraising report just hit the FEC website. Massa raised $290K last quarter, spent $203K, and has $652K on hand.

Reader Elmer sends today's Corning Leader front-page [pdf] story (jump [pdf]), which contains Kuhl's reaction to a DCCC press release about energy.

The DCCC claims that Kuhl is a friend of big oil, and uses two facts to back that up. First, it claims that Kuhl has received $29,600 from oil companies. Second, it claims that Kuhl voted against a bill that would end taxpayer subsidies for big oil.

Kuhl questioned the accuracy of the first charge, but according to OpenSecrets, he received $29K from energy and natural resource companies in the 2006 cycle. In the current cycle, he's received a tenth of that, but the real arm-twisting hasn't started yet.

The vote that the DCCC is talking about happened this Spring, on the Energy Bill. The summary from non-partisan Project Vote Smart, includes this:

-Prevents tax deductions to major integrated oil companies for income resulting from the domestic production of oil and gas (Sec. 301).

Kuhl also supports a cut in the gas tax and drilling in ANWR, both of which aren't solutions, as I've discussed earlier.

Yesterday's Corning Leader says this about Kuhl's lackluster fundraising:

One possible explanation for the discrepancy in fund raising numbers is the length of time the two candidates have been officially in the race.  While it was widely speculated Kuhl would run for reelection, he did not officially kick off his re-election campaign until March.

Kuhl kicked off his 2006 campaign at about the same time as this year's campaign.  According to his Q1 2006 report, he raised $764K by the end of March, 2006.  His latest report shows that he's raised $606K over the same period this cycle.  He's raised $160K less in a comparable period, and his cash on hand is down roughly $75K.

In contrast, Massa raised $255K by this time in the 2006 cycle.  He's raised $868K this time.

Kuhl faces a more experienced, more well-known, and better-financed candidate this cycle, and he does so with less cash than he had last cycle.  This is grim news for the Kuhl campaign, and no spin will change that fact.

Reader Elmer sends the front page [pdf] and jump [pdf] of two stories in today's Corning Leader.  One story is about rising gas prices.  Eric Massa is the main subject, and he states his opposition to John McCain's plan to temporarily suspend gas taxes to lower the price of gas. 

The other story is Massa and Kuhl's fundraising numbers, which includes one rationale for Kuhl's low numbers:  he started later than Massa.

The Hornell Evening Tribune also has a story on Massa and Kuhl's fundraising numbers. 

Both of the area's Gannett papers, the D&C and the Star-Gazette,  ran stories about the Massa and Kuhl money numbers.  Both quote Massa and the RNCC.  The RNCC thinks 2006 was the "worst environment for Republicans in decades". 

Update: The Messenger-Post also has a money story.  This one quotes Kuhl's confidence that he'll get his message across.

Randy Kuhl's campaign finance report is out.  Kuhl raised $110K last quarter, less than half of what Massa's total.  Kuhl has $365K cash on hand, $200K less than Massa.  Kuhl raised $47K from individuals, and $64K from PACs.