Recently in Speculation Category

I have yet to receive a stimulus mailer from Randy Kuhl, and neither has Reader Rich.  Reasoning from this massive sample of two, it does raise the question of whether that mailer was targeted in some way. 

To continue this line of baseless speculation using anecdotal data, I noticed that the mailer posted at Rochesterturning was sent to someone in Victor.  Victor, which is a part of Ontario County, is a good target.  It's more conservative than Monroe, since it contains a mix of suburban and rural voters.  If I were Kuhl, I'd want to firm up my support there.

The Albany Project reports the rumor that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is urging Randy Kuhl to retire because he can't win.  The NRCC's favored candidate, according to this rumor, is Maggie Brooks, the Monroe County Executive.

This makes no sense for a number of reasons.  First, Maggie represented Monroe County's 17th District in the County Legislature, which includes the town of Irondequoit.  Unless she's moved, she doesn't live in the district, so she's a "carpetbagger".   Second, putting a Monroe County Republican up against a Southern Tier Democrat is a dumb move.   The Southern Tier houses the Republican core of the district, and they're going to want one of their own running.

I have to believe this is a rumor manufactured by someone who doesn't know the area very well, but is able to read campaign finance reports.  Maggie is a good fundraiser, so she'd have some deep pockets.  But money isn't enough to win a Congressional race, especially for someone who's going to have to move to get into the district.

(via Rochesterturning)

Polls in New York open at Noon and close at 9.  I've already talked with someone who went to their polling place, found it empty and wondered what was going on.

All Democratic races are proportional except for West Virginia (18 delegates) and Montana (25 delegates).  If races are tight in all the proportional states (with home-states of New York/New Jersey balanced by Illinois), then these two mountain states might be more important than one would think.  That's about as astute as my analysis gets, unfortunately.

After the break, an overly-cute Obama video, for which I apologize in advance.

According to the McClatchy Newspapers and the Hill, there's a compromise brewing on S-CHIP.  Republican Senators Chuck Grassley and Orrin Hatch, who support S-CHIP, met with the staffs of 38 House members to add tweaks to tighten up restrictions on illegal aliens, adults and income levels. 

What's interesting is whether Randy Kuhl is one of the swing voters being courted.  According to a DCCC press release, Kuhl was one of the authors of a letter to the President urging compromise on S-CHIP.  I can't find the letter posted anywhere, so the details of the compromise Kuhl advocated are, for now, a bit of a mystery, and probably less important than the signal sent by the letter.

The Hill also reports that Kuhl is one of the members being targeted for yet another ad campaign by moveon.org.

I should change the title of this blog to "S-CHIP Diaries".  

According to Rochesterturning, rumors are flying that David Nachbar will drop out of the primary race in the 29th. One of the reasons I find this credible is the private equity firm Warburg Pincus announced yesterday that their acquisition of Bausch and Lomb will proceed. Since it's common practice in acquisitions to "lock up" key players, I assume that Nachbar will commit to at least a year of employment at B&L. The Warburg acquisition must still be approved by shareholders, so it's reasonable to assume that Nachbar will be locked up well into Fall, 2008, which gives him little room for primary campaigning.

Update: It's official.

Reader John sent me a painstakingly detailed spreadsheet of data from the 2006 election. In it, John studied registration and turnout in the 29th, town-by-town and county-by-county. One of the factors John studied was "pull", or the ability of a candidate to garner votes beyond their base.

Exile of Rochesterturning reports on his conversations with regional Democratic leaders about the Nachbar candidacy. He believes that Louise Slaughter will not officially endorse Nachbar for the 2008 race, and that most of the town and county Democratic committees will publicly support Massa. My sources aren't as numerous as Exile's, but a source that I trust has also reported that Slaughter will not endorse Nachbar this time around.

Exile mentions that he started getting DCCC press releases around the time of Nachbar's announcement, and speculates whether Nachbar is their candidate, since he's using a PR firm with ties to Rahm Emmanuel, the DCCC chair. I don't know about the PR firm, but I've also been receiving those press releases, which are formulaic, low-quality efforts.

Sources tell Rochesterturning that the DCCC is going to remain neutral in the contest in the 29th. I don't agree. My take is that the DCCC is going to maintain the appearance of neutrality while putting in place measures that support Louise Slaughter's handpicked wealthy candidate, David Nachbar.

Earlier this year, Eric Massa began raising money with the claim that the DCCC will consider his race a "top tier" race if he raises $300,000 by the end of June. At the time, I thought that his claim was just part of the usual fundraising rhetoric and didn't give it much thought. In the light of Nachbar's candidacy, however, this claim appears more interesting, since Nachbar can become a "top tier" candidate by simply writing a check. Once Nachbar is "top tier", it will become easier for him to raise money, and harder for Massa.

Obviously, this is pure opinion and speculation, but it can easily be verified by anyone who keeps tabs on DCCC press releases and FEC quarterly reports.

Eric Massa has been dropping hints about his future. Nothing definite has been said, but here are two recent indicators from secondhand sources:

• In the preface to his Daily Kos diary yesterday, Mike Pridmore, who sometimes posts Massa's stories for him, mentioned that Massa had a conversation with Howard Dean this week where Dean encouraged him to run in 2008. Massa expects to make his decision in the first months of 2007.
• A reader reports that he heard Massa speak publicly and mention that he's thinking about some kind of radio presence in the 29th, perhaps with a weekly commentary on one of the larger Rochester stations.

Both of these non-announcements are vague and inconclusive, but it's clear that, as promised, Massa is thinking seriously about a future political role in the 29th.

One of the great things about this election is that nobody knows how it's going to turn out.  I wouldn't be surprised by a Massa blowout, a Massa win, or a Kuhl squeaker.  A Kuhl blowout would be a surprise, but even Bob Van Wicklin isn't predicting that.

I stick by the prediction that I made when I started this blog:  this race is a bellwether.  If it's a Massa blowout, or even a Massa win, I expect Democratic gains in both houses on the high end of analysts' predictions.  If Kuhl wins, Democrats will control the House by a razor-thin margin at best, and probably won't control the Senate.

There are no national exit polls in House races, so we'll have to wait until the polls close to determine the winner.  With New York's venerable yet reliable voting machines, returns come in quickly.  The suspense will be over shortly after voting ends at 9 p.m.