Archive (2008)

Morning Update

The AP has called the 29th race, so national and local media outlets are saying that it's over. However, Kuhl has not conceded, staking his claim on 20,000 or so uncounted absentee ballots.

This morning's CNN/AP tally shows Massa with a 4,400 vote lead, with 99% of the precincts counted.

To get a sense of the overall damage to the Republican party, Elmer sends this list from Politico.

Update: Here's the Leader story on the race. Massa agrees that every vote needs to be counted, and he's not declaring victory. The Leader pegs the absentee number as 12,000.

Looking at the Numbers

A few days ago someone asked what Massa was doing spending so much time in the Souther Tier in the last few days of the campaign. Last night, the the answer to that question became clear: He was winning the election.

In 2006, Kuhl won every Southern Tier county. This year, Massa won all the Southern Tier but Yates, Steuben and Schuyler. His margin of victory in Monroe was about the same as in '06, and he once again narrowly lost Ontario. Without the boost from those Tier counties, Randy Kuhl would have been re-elected.

Most of those counties are heavily Republican, so it's likely that Massa's margin of victory came not only from independent voters, but also from Republicans who were sending their party a message. It's also clear evidence that Massa's four years of appearances at Rotary meetings, union halls and town celebrations made a difference.

Turn Out the Lights

With 98% of the votes reported, Eric Massa holds a lead of a little more than 4,000 votes. That's a slightly smaller number than Kuhl's victory margin in 2006. Kuhl's margin stood after the absentee ballots were counted, and I assume that will be the case with Massa's margin.

Eric Massa will represent the 29th district in the 111th Congress. Congratulations to the Massa campaign.

Live Feed from Massa's Party

This link will carry a live feed from Massa's party later this evening.

Election Night Live Blog

Election Result Links

Here are all the county sites, some of which have election results tonight:

Update on the Evening's Festivities

Evan Dawson at 13-WHAM has more on tonight's blogger portion of the CW-16 show. It will be broadcast on the Internet at

Howard Owens from The Batavian will be joining us.

The live blog here will start around 8:30 or so. Check in then to see what's happening.

Turnout So Far

I VotedI stood in line 10 minutes in Pittsford today at about 10:45. Almost half of my district had already voted.

DragonFlyEye says the lines were out the door first thing this morning at East Rochester.

Reader Elmer had no problems this morning in rural Steuben County.

Feel free to email or comment if you have a turnout story to share.

Massa in Brighton

Here's Eric Massa at an event in the 12 Corners area of Brighton, a little over an hour ago, courtesy of Michael Parks. There's another one after the break.

Eric Massa (c) Michael Parks

Eric Massa (c) Michael Parks

Registration Totals

The Board of Elections has posted final voter registration tallies. Overall, Democrats gained about 8,000 voters, and Republicans lost about 6,000, since 2006. There are also 7,000 more blanks.

That's good news for Massa, but with overall registration still favoring Republicans by about 50,000 voters, his task is still pretty similar to 2006: convincing Republicans.

Thanks to Sean Carroll for pointing this out. Also, note that the BOE is reporting "active" and "inactive" numbers in '08, but not in '06. I used the "inactive" number for an apples-to-apples comparison.

Morning News

WENY reports on the candidates' activities yesterday.

The Star-Gazette has the scoop on Southern Tier TV election-night reporting.

The Corning Leader also has a local race story.

It's On

Polls just opened in New York. The weather forecast is still very good, though there's some early-morning fog in the Corning/Elmira area.