In the next couple of days, I'm going to write about how each candidate can win this election. The title of today's post, taken from a Tragically Hip song, describes the incumbent, "lying in wait" strategy that Kuhl should follow to increase his chances of re-election.
There's relatively little action in the 29th right now, and that's the way Randy Kuhl wants to keep it. Kuhl seems to be waiting for events to
drive his candidacy. Since his Iraq adventure, he's been out of the
limelight. The last
press release on his campaign website is a month old. Other than a response to MoveOn.org, which he was almost compelled to offer, Kuhl has not yet engaged in this election.
Randy's made a couple of blunders -- inviting Bush this Spring and going to Iraq this Summer are two -- but overall he's played a smart incumbent game. Kuhl realizes that the local and national facts are against him this year. As a freshman, he doesn't have a long record of service to the district, so he can't launch a set of positive service-oriented ads like his colleague Tom Reynolds. As a Bush loyalist, there aren't many positions that he's taken that are broadly popular, so running ads touting his relationship with the President, or his position on national issues, would be a waste of money.
Though it runs against a politician's natural grain, keeping one's
mouth shut is often a good strategy. Kuhl should stick to
it. Unless he's far behind in the polls, he should continue to duck debates. He should be
present for every last vote in Congress, make no speeches
whatsoever, and avoid comment on any topic.
His $500K warchest should stand ready for the next misstep of Massa or Massa's allies. Any attack should be treated as lies about Randy. He wants to appear as a hard-working victim of outside, radical forces. He wants the conversation to be about the picky details of the charges against him, not the broad outlines of his responsiblity for agreeing with Bush administration positions.
Kuhl's strongest advantages are the voter registration split in his district, the inertia of voters in an off-year
election, the relative obscurity of his opponent, and the lack of competitive statewide races. None of these can be made stronger by positive action on his part. That's why his silence is golden, at least until he finds a place where his candidacy has to happen.
Comments
I agree with your analysis. But it's hard for me to put "tragically hip" and "Randy Kuhl" in the same sentence. With all due respect to his mulitcolored shirts, braided belt, and Member's Only jacket.
Perhaps "Blow at High Dough" would have been a more apropos Hip reference, eh?
Randy's haircut would not have been entirely out-of-place in a New Wave band.