Tight races are decided by the most fickle and least informed voters: last-minute undecideds. In the 29th, both candidates are using every technique at their disposal to close with voters who haven't been paying attention until now.
Yesterday and today's Democrat and Chronicle has a couple of round-up stories that detail efforts to sway undecideds. One of the important points made in today's story concerns the marginal value of additional spending. At some point, additional money spent on advertising doesn't work. But neither campaign knows if they've reached that point. So they just keep spending.
The marginal value of advertising is especially questionable in the Northern 29th. The Rochester media market has three close Congressional races along with the legislative and judicial contests. Almost every ad during local programming (like the news) is a political advertisement. Ads for the 29th are probably drowned out in the overall din of political ads.
The Kuhl campaign is trying to fill the space between the ads -- the local news -- by announcing grants in different parts of the district and hoping for media coverage. Today, Kuhl will announce grants for Ontario and Monroe county projects. Last week, he announced grants in Elmira and Corning.
Lacking the incumbent advantage of announcing pork, the Massa campaign has opted for a more personal approach: touring the district and pressing the flesh. Massa began a week-long tour of the eight counties in the 29th yesterday.
Comments
What a race and, again, thank you for the time and color you are giving it. Someone at St. Bonnie U. floated the notion that Monroe GOP leaders are not going to do much for the incumbent, willing instead for Massa to pull an upset and then, in 08 with John McCain likely leading the ticket, regaining the seat for a MONROE COUNTY Republican. Then, following the census of 2010, chances are Steuben and Allegeheny and Chemung would be divided up into existent districts with Monroe still left with whoever is elected from up there in 2008. Could it be? Not that out of the question....
I think Monroe Co Republicans have their hands full with 4 CDs in their area, along with all the local races. The "clever" gerrymandering of the 29th and the other CDs around Monroe cuts both ways. In a year like 2006 that's hard for the Republicans, it splits the resources of Monroe Co committee.
So I wouldn't read more into the actions (or perceived inaction) of the GOP in Monroe. I'm sure they'd like to have more reps from Monroe, all other things being equal.
I do agree that the most recent redistricting is terrible and should be re-done.