That's it for tonight. I will post at least one wrap-up tomorrow.
11:43: Correction, Kuhl has declared victory and has been declared the winner by news organizations. The Massa campaign says they have nothing more to say tonight.
11:36: Randy Kuhl has been declared the winner, and the Massa campaign has conceded, according to Rochester Channel 13.
11:32: Rochester News 10 reports that Massa will wait until every vote is counted.
11:18 Only 3 counties left. Kuhl's lead has widened to 4,300. Still in recount land, I'd say, but only barely.
11:06: On the CNN tally page, of the four counties that aren't in at 100%, three went for Kuhl at 60+% in 2004. Kuhl's lead will only widen. If Kuhl is ahead by 3,500 to 4,000 tomorrow a.m., the absentee ballots must go for Massa 70/30. Unlikely, to say the least. However, this is truly a squeaker.
10:58: WHAM 13 reports that the Massa campaign claims that the race is a dead heat and absentee ballots will make the difference. There are 9-10,000 absentee ballots. I'm not buying it.
10:53: Comparing the pundits to the returns, it looks like the lean Republican seats (NY-29 and NY-25) are staying Republican in NY. If that's an indicator of the night, this will be a wave, but not a tsunami.
10:40: CNN just updated their NY-29 page. 51/49 Kuhl, with 80% of precincts reporting. Kuhl will win in a squeaker.
10:30: Most Southern counties are going 53/47 or similar.
10:15: Kuhl takes Ontario 51/49. Turnout was better than my model suggested, but it cut the opposite of where it needed to go. Massa's win percent keeps decreasing in Monroe.
10:12: Ontario and Cattaragus are almost completely in, and it looks like Massa has lost both. Monroe holding steady at 57/43 Massa. It needs to be 59/41.
10:01: Hillary and Spitzer are winning everywhere. Ticket splitting in evidence everywhere. So much for coattails, which I didn't buy anyway. Massa losing Ontario with 80% reported.
9:52: Massa is not winning in the North by a big enough numbers. He needs to take Monroe by almost 60/40, and squeak out in Ontario. He's doing neither. Unless something changes, Kuhl takes this race.
Comments
My tally using the numbers posted on the county web sites, and using CNN's numbers for Yates & Allegheny have Eric down by almost 4,000 votes or 51.1% to 48.9%. Yates County is the only unknown right now. (11:15 PM).
I am S O P R O U D of Mr. Massa. Do you know what a remarkable race this has been? I hope that Gov. Spitzer appoints him to something which continues to give him visibility within the Southern Tier. Methinks the GOP will take care of fifty-one percent Randy on their own during the primary a couple of years from now. CONGRATULATIONS to you, MR. MASSA!
between your site and the Rochester tv station I have been able to follow this excitement tonight. Thank you. I echo the congrats for Massa. Do you know how remarkable this run has been? If he acts graciously in this hearbreaking defeat, and keeps up a pace of speaking appearances, he will be well-positioned to make it next year. there willbe plenty of data on which precincts are capable of ticket-splitting, etc. Besides, Mr. Kuhl may get bored as a minirotiy member and take a judgeship or something. But what happened with that jerk Reynolds making it thru?