The Most Important Election Day Factor

Barring the discovery of one of the candidates in bed with a dead girl or a live boy, it's all down to turnout.  Kuhl has the 72 hour strategy, and Massa has his grassroots network of volunteers.  Both efforts pale in comparison to the weather.

The forecast for Tuesday is the same in the North and the South:  High 55, showers possible.  At this point, it looks like weather won't be an major issue.


Not exactly what I call Democrat Weather. But I am wondering if the Republicans are truely enerized. I really don't think so. I don't think they have anything to vote for and they know it.

Tim Russert had Chuck Todd, Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook on his program Saturday night. All three said that the GOP is in for a rough night on Tuesday. Someone even characterized the outcome as the GOP killing fields especially in Ohio, PA, and Indiana. Whether it extends to upstate NY remains to be seen but I think the NY GOP congressional delegation will look different come Wednesday morning.

Nobody comments on this and it may not be true. A friend who follows this stsuff speculates that the GOP in Monroe will be 'passive' and NOT work too hard for theincumbent. Then, if there is a Massa upset, two years from now they can put up a GOP-per from Monroe and, assuming southern parts of the district get absorbed elsewhere following the 2010 census, at least Monroe will be left with a sitting Republican.

Regarding Olean Gal's comments, I think that Monroe is split between NY-25 and NY-29, correct? If so, Monroe GOP might help the GOP lose two races. The Zogby poll for NY-25 released last week said that most of Monroe was undecided. Those voters will definitely affect the election if they turn out and vote one way or the other.

If only Monroe were that simple. It contains parts of NY-25, NY-26, NY-28 and NY-29. "Undecided" is probably a synonym for "confused" -- a lot of voters still don't know who their congressman is, or who they're voting for.