County and municipal elections are Tuesday in the 29th. Since most of the municipal and county officeholders in the 29th are Republicans, Democrats typically have an uphill climb, especially in the Southern 29th. In the North, the city of Rochester is heavily Democratic, and one would think that the Monroe County Democratic Committee (MCDC) should be able to extend its reach into the more Republican suburbs.
However, as I
posted/ranted earlier, the MCDC is so ineffective that it couldn't even field a candidate for County Executive, and I pretty much wrote off this race as a foregone Republican win. Since my last discussion of this issue, two events have occurred that have shaken up the race. The first is Governor Spitzer's license plan, and the second is the "FAIR" tax plan. In my very Republican part of the world, Pittsford in Southeast Monroe County, it looks that the latter is a major mis-step that might lead to a Democratic upset.
The "FAIR" plan is a tax-reallocation plan that, among other things, removes about half of the county's aid for schools from the current school budgets. In Pittsford, the schools are scrambling to make up for a $1 million shortfall this year, and a $2 million shortfall next year. In a district where schools regularly make "top 100 in the nation" lists, this is a big deal. On Friday, I received a four-page, detailed
mailing [3 meg pdf] from the Pittsford superintendent of schools. It criticizes both the results of the FAIR plan, and the non-collaborative process under which it was adopted.
Such a mailing is unprecedented - I've lived here for more than a decade and never seen anything as political. It's also interesting to compare it to two of the mailings I received from Pittsford Democrats. The
first mailing [pdf]
was sent to me personally, and is more detailed. The
second [pdf] was sent to "the Rottenchester family" and contains some feel-good pictures and a few bullet points. Both are state-of-the art political mailings, and both assume that the attention span of the average voter is somewhere between the common housefly (musca domestica) and a restless toddler. The Pittsford Schools, having educated a good percentage of the town's residents, take a different view, and their mailer contains facts and argument instead of slogans.
Don't get me wrong -- the Pittsford Dems mailing is a quality product by the standards of the trade, and it was delivered in a timely manner to the right person (a registered Democrat). As reader Mike writes to point out, the Pittsford Democratic candidate for County Legislature, Ted Nixon, is also running a good campaign. I haven't received any Nixon mailers, but, unlike his opponent, Anthony Daniele, he has a
website, and he posts YouTube videos there regularly.
Nixon's
most recent video concerns the recent Republican mailers about Governor Spitzer's Drivers License plan. As Rochesterturning
first reported, one of the mailers is an over-the-top depiction of "terrorists" getting licenses. I didn't get that mailer, but I did receive a card from Assemblyman Joe Errigo last week that criticized Spitzer's plan. I didn't save that mailer, but Errigo has a
petition [pdf] on his site that contains the substance of his critique. Errigo's mailer is an example of how state and local party officials are able to coordinate to transmit the Republican message prior to an election.
Though the license issue is a statewide one, the county Republicans have made immigration an issue because of the County Clerk's role in issuing licenses, and also because of the negative reception of the FAIR plan. The question is whether the license issue, which is essentially one of ideology, will trump FAIR, which has practical, immediate effects on local schools. My guess is that FAIR will get more voters to the polls.
In Pittsford, Anthony Daniele, who is a solid young candidate with strong community ties, has been forced to make
pronouncements like this about FAIR:
"It is certainly a hurdle,” he said, adding that he supports the plan.
“I believe the schools can do a better job of tightening their belt.”
The only thing I've ever heard Pittsford residents say that their schools should do "a better job of" is educating kids. I've been at a meeting where parents complained that the school did not teach Mandarin to sixth graders. Belt-tightening doesn't lead to "top 100" schools, and I'm sure that Daniele, who's running for an open seat that's been historically Republican, would rather be talking about anything else in the lead-up to the election.
Though FAIR has probably put some local and county seats in play that were safely Republican, it should also serve as an object lesson to the MCDC. Fortune favors the prepared. If the Monroe Dems had a candidate for County Executive, they'd have a spokesperson who would be able to lead and coordinate their FAIR story. As it stands now, their candidates are on their own. The complacency of the Monroe Democratic leadership is as astonishing as it is unforgivable.
Comments
Interesting, though down here we don't know the players. Speaking of down here, in Steuben, things are going to be ho-hum Tuesday. It does look as if the controversial, sort of loud and angry mayor or Corning may be defeated. Which will take some steam out of Mr Massa's stable of 'Southern Tier Mayor' endorsements, if it happens.
Yeah, it's no fun reading this stuff unless you know the players or the playing field. But I wanted to put in my $.02.
As far as Corning goes, it does seem that Coccho's abrasive personality doesn't work well down there, but I only know what I read in the papers. Perhaps the R's who crossed over last time will vote their party this time, and he'll lose. That goes to show that it's almost better for a Republican to vote Democratic in a Republican area, if the Democrat seems like a good candidate. If the D doesn't live up to his or her promises, it's almost guaranteed that they'll be voted out next election. On the other hand, if the R is just halfway decent, they have a sinecure, because incumbency + party advantage is very difficulty to overcome.
For what it is worth - both the Corning and Elmira papers have endorsed the Republican Reed in the Corning mayoral race. Last year they both endorsed Kuhl over Massa - In 2005 the Corning paper endorsed Coccho (the democrat challenger at the time) over the incumbent Republican.
Interesting. Thank you, ElmerK. Methinks it will be a GOP win in Corning tomorrow night!