The Albany Project
reports the rumor that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is urging Randy Kuhl to retire because he can't win. The NRCC's favored candidate, according to this rumor, is Maggie Brooks, the Monroe County Executive.
This makes no sense for a number of reasons. First, Maggie
represented Monroe County's 17th District in the County Legislature, which includes the town of Irondequoit. Unless she's moved, she doesn't live in the district, so she's a "carpetbagger". Second, putting a Monroe County Republican up against a Southern Tier Democrat is a dumb move. The Southern Tier houses the Republican core of the district, and they're going to want one of their own running.
I have to believe this is a rumor manufactured by someone who doesn't know the area very well, but is able to read campaign finance reports. Maggie is a good fundraiser, so she'd have some deep pockets. But money isn't enough to win a Congressional race, especially for someone who's going to have to move to get into the district.
(via
Rochesterturning)
Comments
1) its the nrcc not the rncc.
2) Kuhl is not fundraising, and by him not doing so, has not made many friends down in the NRCC. The NRCC is not relishing throwing a million dollars in the 29th district, when it should be a GOP district, just because Kuhl thinks that they are going to bail him out at the end of the day. He thinks he is still in the NYS Senate and that is how things are done there.
3) The NRCC is looking past 2008 and really towards 2012. They know that upstate is going to lose 2 seats. Kuhl's Republican seat will be done, and the Southern Tier cannot and will not justify having its own congressional seat. Moreover, if the NYS Senate flips from GOP to DEM; Kuhl's seat will be eliminated. The NRCC would rather have someone like a Maggie Brooks, who can attract Democrats and women in Rochester, to be a tough person to compete with in 2012 and beyond.
4) The carpet bagger issue isn't that big unless Maggie gets a primary in the GOP primary from the southern tier, like State Sen. Cathy Young. The Rochester area is more urban and doesn't really care where the congressman is from as long as they perform well. The Southern Tier might want more "homerism".
The bottom line is: Kuhl doesn't fundraise, and the NRCC doesn't want to bail him out, at the expense of other races. They feel his should have been locked up; but he's lazy and not a team player.
1) D'oh. I fixed the post.
2) Probably true, but the NRCC has been having a hard time themselves. It's hard times all around for Republicans raising funds. They might resent his lack of fundraising, but hard to see how they can single him out.
3) Agreed that Brooks would be a good contender for a seat that has NY-28 plus some more of the surrounding (more Republican) counties. However, that's 2012, not 2008.
4) In today's NY-29, carpetbagger is a big issue.
I don't think that the resentment that the NRCC feels (whether or not it is justified) implies that they want to run Maggie Brooks instead of Kuhl in 2008. And, more importantly, what is Brooks' motivation to take a longshot risk that will probably alienate the party, and cause her to leave a safe seat as county exec?
If Kuhl were to retire, Sen. Winner is a more logical replacement.
I don't doubt that the NRCC would want Kuhl to retire. He's a weak candidate in very Republican district. They might have a better chance with someone else. As long as that someone didn't just move into the district from Irondequoit last week.
I agree that I don't think Brooks can win this district. Or NY-25 for that matter. She may have a shot at something once redistricting hits in 2012.