Super Tuesday Pre-Game

Unless you've been hiding in a cave, you know that the New York State Presidential primary is tomorrow.  I've contributed a guest post to Rochesterturning in support of Barack Obama, and you can view Obama's latest ad after the jump. 

The New York Democratic Party has a special webpage full of information for Democrats.  There doesn't seem to be a similar page for Republicans. 

For those interested in an overview of polls, there's an excellent post at which summarizes the recent history of every poll in every Super Tuesday state in one easy-to-read chart.

With favorite son Rudy Guliani out of the running, Randy Kuhl has officially endorsed John McCain.  Eric Massa is tacitly supporting Senator Hillary Clinton. 


While Hillary looks as if she'll carry a lot of states tomorrow, here's a handy "cheatsheet" on the projected delegate count based on the poll numbers in the Dem race, and it appears to be a deadheat between Hillary and Obama, which is, of course, good for Obama:

Thanks. Unless Hillary wins quite a few states by landslide, it looks like Obama will be in the running. It's really turning out to be an interesting race.

Another fact: delegates are assigned proportionally by Congressional District. In Cali, many districts have an even number of delegates. So Hillary needs 62.5% to break a delegate tie.

The fact that delegates are assigned proportionally in the Dem race certainly helps Obama. Ironically, the Rudy strategy of getting northeastern states like New York, Connecticut, New Jersey and Delaware to be winner-take-all on the Republican side is a huge plus for McCain now. It's amazing that just a few weeks ago, we were talking about how scrambled the GOP race was while the Dem race appeared to be an easy win for Hillary. Now the parties have switched places, with McCain the clear frontrunner and a battle between Hillary and Obama.

Yes, it's interesting how quickly McCain seems to have become the front runner. Romney might surprise tomorrow, but you're probably right that McCain will win the mega states and seal it up.

I prefer proportional vs winner-take-all, but I don't like the number of superdelegates in the Democratic primary.