The DCCC has to make tough decisions about where to spend its money. This is well-understood, and if the DCCC doesn't want to spend money in the 29th district, that's their choice. I think they're wrong, but that's nothing new with an organization that has a long record of poor money choices. (I've examined some of those choices here and in more depth here, including an explanation of the FAIL-o-tron reference.)
However, letting their list of targeted ads leak is a simple unforced error. It sends a signal to fundraisers, donors and pundits about the races where they think some extra money will make a difference. Leaking, or letting out, this list in July, which is 2-3 months before the ad buys will occur, damages any Democrat in a tight race who isn't on that list.
The DCCC may have some clever reason for leaking the list (if it wasn't an accident). If they do, I guarantee that it's too clever by half.
Update: Here's the DCCC response:
Our initial media buy is the first act of a many act play. As we have been all cycle, the DCCC is focused, prepared, and organized. Watch what we do over the next four months and our aggressive strategy to expand the playing field and strengthen the Democratic Majority will become clear.
Comments
Maybe they see something in the 29th that I don't. I still expect a close race. Do they do polling before they make these decisions?
I do think that one of Massa's big issues, the war in Iraq, has been blunted because:
1. The war seems to be going better
2. Obama has said he will meet with the military prior to withdrawing, casting in doubt his previous comments about getting out quickly.
3. True or not, the Iraqis are even talking about a timetable for getting out.
Also, I think he is on the wrong side of public opinion when it comes to drilling.
I assume some internal polling has gone on, but I haven't seen any. The 29th race is still considered a toss up by all the major political analysts.
Massa could still get some ad money based on further polling, or if some of the races on the DCCC's list become less competitive. My real gripe is the release of what should be confidential data.
I think the DCCC may still end up putting some money into NY-29. This won't be all the ad buys they do.
I will enjoy this election and the 2010 election. This one because we have two candidates from Steuben County, something we will probably never see again. The 2010, because it will be the last election in the 29th, unless population trends change significantly in the future.
You never know. I think the next gerrymander is going to try to carve out one last "safe" Republican district in WNY, using the Southern Tier and parts West and East of Rochester, and taking in enough of the Buffalo and Rochester suburbs to make up the rest. Steuben might still be able to field a couple of candidates.
The 2010, because it will be the last election in the 29th, unless population trends change significantly in the future.
It will be interesting to see how the seat gets redrawn. Personally, I hope that the lines are redrawn by a nonpartisan panel rather than by Silver and Skelos (or more likely Silver and Malcolm Smith). A nonpartisan panel would probably make some effort to draw "natural boundaries" and I would imagine that would result in a district that included the counties in the tier plus some surrounding rural counties, i.e. one that didn't strangely extend into Pittsford. If we have another politically motivated gerrymander, though, then there's no telling what the district will look like.
As much as we all want it to be a barnburner, I'm in the corner which says that Randy will 'coast,' in a way, to a five-to-ten point victory. Things are just too quiet this time around.