SurveyUSA: Massa 51, Kuhl 44

The first independent poll for the 2008 cycle shows Massa leading Kuhl by 7 points. The poll was commissioned and published [pdf] by the subscription-only Roll Call magazine.

FiveThirtyEight is a site that does extensive ranking of pollsters. They rate SurveyUSA as the most accurate polling organization in the nation, as explained here.

(via Rochesterturning)


Wow...lets have the subscribers of the NRA Publications polled and see what they say.

Can't wait to see the NRCC's poll. Their polls can't be THAT biased. *wink*

They polled a whopping 602 people. hah Is that their total number of subscribers?

I don't understand your first sentence. Roll Call commissioned the poll of 29th CD residents, not their subscribers.

The fact that you're not seeing NRCC polls is because they don't have enough money to poll and/or the results aren't good enough to share.

The MoE on 602 people is 4.1%, as disclosed. That means, worst case, it's neck-and-neck.

I find this hard to believe. Period. I hate to see it raise expectations in the Massa camp when it's so unlikely this upset can be pulled off. I WILL say that the rockem-socken Sheriff's race in Steuben, which is burning up the Leader and Tribune blogs, ensures plenty of ticket-splitting over there...which I think could help Massa. It's a free-for-all. Elmer would know more and be able to correct m e but I think that the winner of the three-way GOP primary is controversial and, besides, won by something like a few dozen votes. Meantime, the one who placed such a close second won the Independent and Conservative lines AND the third-place finisher has teamed up with him as an informal, off-the-ballot candidate for Undersheriff. The GOP bosses, who have united behind the close winner, are bemoaning that "the party is being splintered", etc., etc. simply because the voters of Steuben--who AREN'T slouches--are being given A CHOICE.

My gut tells me that this is Massa's race to lose. Randy has not been engaged enough this cycle and I think it will make a big difference. He will still carry the southern tier, but not by as large a margin as last time.

The sheriff's race is anyone's guess. My gut here tells me that the republican candidate (Ordway) will win mostly due to the close connection that his opponent, Dave Cole, has with the present very unpopular sheriff.