Here's my pre-game guide for tomorrow's election.

Let's begin about the non-issues. Though we'll be hearing a lot about long lines across the country, the 29th, which has lost population over the years, will have plenty of voting machines, and the election will probably run smoothly. The weather will be beautiful, and we'll have a big turnout because of interest in this race as well as the Presidential election.

In 2006, I posted a model that showed what Massa had to do to win. I didn't do that this year, but the basic formula for a Massa victory remains the same:

  • Win Monroe County by at least 18 points. Massa needs to approach 60/40 here to offset the Southern Tier Republican vote.
  • Edge out Kuhl in Ontario County, 51-49 or better.
  • In the Southern Tier, Massa needs to avoid blowouts, perhaps beating Kuhl in a couple of counties like Chemung and Yates.

Monroe usually reports first. If Massa isn't destroying Kuhl in Monroe, he probably won't win. Also, big Monroe turnout numbers are a good sign, though those may be muddied by an increase in inner-city turnout because of Obama excitement.

In 2006 we knew who won a little after 10:30 PM. That's 26 crazy hours from now.


Chemung could go for Massa but never Yates.

Massa wins Chemung by 3, Monroe by 10, Ontario by 2

Elmer, thanks for the links.

Pepper - we'll see. Yates seems to have a very active Democratic party, but of course they're working against a big registration deficit.