I took a look through Tom Reed's YouTube channel and his campaign website to get an idea of what kind of challenge he'd provide Eric Massa if he decides to run.
Reed seems like a reasonable, affable guy, and he's probably well-liked in Corning. Though he was running against a fairly divisive blowhard, Frank Coccho, Reed wisely chose to show, not tell, to get the point across that he'd be a better Mayor. The statements I could find were generally positive and forward-looking.
Even though he makes a good impression, Reed is neither photogenic nor charismatic. Massa isn't either, and political contests aren't beauty pageants. But Reed is going to have to catch the attention of 29th district voters who don't know him, and he'll have to do it through TV and other media.
A fair amount of Reed's appeal in Corning was that he has deep roots in the community. Amo Houghton's endorsement [video], for example, made this point. (That video, by the way, is worth watching just to see Amo in action.) Reed's family history will probably attract some Corning votes, but Steuben County is already a lock for any Republican. His roots won't take him far in the Rochester suburbs.
What's most important about Reed is what he isn't and what he might be. He clearly isn't a hack Assembly or Senate member who's been marinating in the Albany sewer so long that he will bobble a campaign before it gets started. Jim Tedisco, who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in NY-20, is a good example of that kind of politician.
Reed might be willing to buck the rump of the Republican party, which is currently running purity tests and expelling anyone with even a hint of centrism. If he's going to win, Reed needs to be able to throw away the John Boehner gameplan, which only works in Red states, and explain to voters how he'll be more like Amo and less like Rush. Since Reed has made no statements on any Federal or State issue, his positions on the topics that will shape the 2010 campaign are unknown.
The New York Republican Party needs more young, reasonable politicians. Reed might be one of them, and though he faces an uphill climb in NY-29, he might be the Republican's best shot in 2010.
Comments
Thanks for this interesting analysis. When you think about it, Mr. Reed can't lose--well, figuratively. A young guy, he will establish himself further, for sure, within the Chemung/Schyler/Steuben market, positioning himself as a natural for a State Assembly or Senate race. It's sort of a shame if he's the candidate because, otherwise, presumably Massa would have been "the hometown candidate" this time around. (Steuben voters aren't THAT robotic. Hilary Clinton, Chuck Schumer...both have made credible, heavy cross-over runs down there). Do you think there is even a remote chance of a primary on the GOP sign? Hard to imagine, but.....
What Reed's probably doing now is feeling out other possible candidates -- if a "big stick" is going to get in, Reed will probably stay out. But if someone like Bill Nojay runs, you might see a primary with Reed in it.
How serious is Bill Nojay about running?
I don't know - I just heard he was making noises about running.
Isn't there a woman state legislator (Assemblyperson?) from the Jamestown/Olean area who was mentioned early on? Or does she, too, not want to risk a likely sure-bet on re-election.
Her name is Senator Cathy Young, but she doesn't live in the district. No reason she couldn't run, of course, but at this point it looks like being in the NYS Senate is a giant negative.
I think people are calling the race for Massa way too early. I supported Eric last time, and probably will this time - but the 29th is still a Republican district, and President Obama may have a direct impact on this election depending on how well people think his administration has done.
You're spot-on -- there's no doubt this could be one of the most competitive races in the country.
I agree.
If the election in 2010 becomes a referendum on Obama ..and the economy doesn't start getting better real soon..than Eric is screwed,
Obama needs to stop concentrating on issues like cap and trade, health care etc..and start doing something to improve the economy...even cutting taxes if that is what it requires.
The stimulus bill hasn't worked. It was advertised as a meaure to prevent unemployment from passing 8%. Unemployment is now over 9%..and rising !
Failing to improve the economy will unravel EVERYTHING!
If we're not in the start of a recovery by this time next year, the politics get tougher for Massa, but I don't remember the Obama administration promising a quick fix. The message they gave when the stimulus passed was that it was going to be a long slog, and that's the right expectation.