A Message to You, Rudy

The big question for the 29th in 2010 is whether Democrats will turn out. A high-visibility Senate race with a well-funded Democrat makes it more likely that there will be a good Democratic turnout. For that reason, Rudy's announcement that he's going to run for Gillibrand's seat is good news for Massa, since he'll give Democrats another reason to go to the polls.

From a media perspective, Massa and Gillibrand will have the only competitive Federal races in the area. There should be enough TV time to go around, though I'm sure Dan Maffei and Chris Lee will have token opponents who will justify a million bucks worth of "feel good" ads.


And Rudy wouldn't help GOP turnout because... GOP turnout is already going to be high? If GOP turnout will be so high that the first competitive Senate race in a decade- featuring one of the biggest GOP stars- doesn't boost turnout, Massa is as good as gone. And that assumes the Rudy and Gillibrand efforts either tie or favor Gillibrand. There's plenty of ways Rudy can help Reed's campaign. If Rudy drops the ball that would hurt Reed, but then Gillibrand could fumble too. Seems like wishful thinking.

You're right about the 29th being the only competitive seat west of the Syracuse area. I have a feeling that national Democrats won't plow the kind of money against Lee that they did last year. If all that spending (I saw more anti-Lee ads than I did about the 29th) in an anti-GOP year left Lee with a 15 point win, it would be silly to try again at a time when there are so many competitive seats to protect.

And Rudy wouldn't help GOP turnout because... GOP turnout is already going to be high?

Exactly. From what I've seen, the GOP always turns out pretty well in the Southern Tier, so I'm thinking an interesting race will result in a net gain for Democratic turnout.

I admit this is just speculation. I don't know what kind of a campaign Rudy is going to run. He's definitely a real threat to Gillibrand, but whether he will make turnout in the 29th a big part of his campaign is yet to be seen.

I agree that Lee will be left alone, since re-districting will get him in 2 years, and Dems will be on defense, not offense.