The Key Finding In the Siena Poll

Thanks to the commenters who pointed out that there's a new Siena poll out showing Reed leading Zeller by 14 points. Here's the important part:

A majority of district residents said they aren’t familiar with either candidate. A total of 57 percent of responders said they don’t know or have no opinion of Reed, while 82 percent of those polled either don’t know have no opinion of Zeller.

It's hard to poll a race where over half of those polled don't know either candidate, and a race where nobody knows either candidate can be influenced by advertisements from one or the other. If Zeller had the money for a big media campaign, he'd be able to acquaint some of that 82% with his candidacy, and I'd wager that the gap would close. The same is true, to a lesser extent, for Reed.

It's also true that a big negative media story could sink Reed's or Zeller's boat.


I find it remarkable that reed hasn't made more headway considering he started campaigning almost a year and a half ago.

I find it even more remarkable that the so called voters in our district haven't taken the time to get to know the candidates. There are so many important issues now - and no matter which way you see them - it is important for each voter to educate themselves so they can vote for someone who sees things their way. Apparently this isn't happening.

All most people around here need to know is the letter next to the candidate's name. Considering how low-key this race has been, that favors the Republican automatically. About the only thing that can save Zeller now is for Volk and her surrogate Ostrowski to keep on flailing and try to draw off votes from Reed. And, given the 2-1 margin Reed has so far among those who have decided, that might not even work. The rest could just as easily leave it blank or not vote at all.

Who is Ostrowski?

It's my understanding that he is a Tea-Party lawyer from Buffalo.

Jim Ostrowski (Web: ) is Janice Volk's lawyer.

I tried to go to this website. My computer says it does not exist.

Based on this website and this poll (literally a handful of people who answered a telephone call as "representative voters") I'm beginning to think that the 29th district is loserville and deserves to get mediocrity if Tom Reed is indeed their choice.

However, such a stupid, insignificant poll and a web-site that has about 20 respondents posting (myself included) is a pretty weak indication of what may come about, don't you think?

What is the timetable for any reapportionment which might occur on heels of this year's Census? Is it possible that, as soon as prior to the 2012 Congressional vote, "First Term Tom" might be facing a new district such as he'd be up against Hinchey or a fellow GOP-er? Just curious....

Volk in the news lately:

1. WLEA Radio in Hornell has sound bites of the candidate forum in Elmira last night. One hi-light of many: Mr. Reed saying he is pro-life but then saying he supports embryonic stem cell research and abortion in certain situations. Contradicting much?

2. Front page news for Hornell Evening Tribune:

3. Top story news for WENY-TV:

Where can you find the WLEA Radio soundbites? What are the other highlights, other than Reed's surprising stance on stem cells...

I have the sound bites that played on WLEA Rado in Hornell all day Friday. I can email them to you or maybe have the site admin post them. My email is:

WENY had Reed listed with (D). Too funny.

I caught Reed in the same thing. He does not qualify as "pro-life."

You want funny? As well as gutsy??! Ha ha......Read the "Tribune"-reported comments by Volk today about Mr. Reed's alleged unwillingness to debate her. Is she is writing this stuff--soooooo dangerous, frankly; I fear pay-back for her--she should be on Letterman. Example: "(Volk) said Reed needs to 'man up' and stop hiding from any debates with her. 'I’ve never seen a man his size this afraid,' Volk said.

This "gal" really is injecting some FUN and spunk into this campaign--finally!

That is pretty crazy. Also, I thought it was interesting that Zeller welcomed her with open arms and Reed's guy said if we let her in then anyone who wants to run as a write will expect a spot. I think Reed genuinely feels threatened by her.

Tom Reed is VERY threatened by her. He knows that the people will like her more than him. He is pathetic and I pray to God the voters will not elect this man. I will be writing in Janice Volk along with all of my family members and some friends too. All it takes is people to talk with one another and this can catch some steam - a true grass roots campaign! The people need to stand up and not support Mr. Reed, he is a very dangerous man! I think those of us that are so upset about Jan not being included on the debates should attend the debates and show our displeasure, we are not going to accomplish anything by being quiet and taking no action!

Push Volk all you want but you might better be working on 2012 and getting the correct amount of proper signatures together. How can she represent me when she can't even get a petition filed properly.


Volk did have more than enough valid signatures submitted. However, she did not have the money to fight Reed's challenges in Albany. For example, there was a challenge by Reed, that the "Town of Gowanda" does not exist. So, to answer your question, the petitions were filed correctly. Again, all she is trying to do is give the people a true Conservative choicein November. And, if you look up Mr. Reed's record, he has made many mistakes in his past. Please feel free to contact me, I would be more than willing to answer any questions.

Yet she never appealed-- and don't give me any excuse about money and lawyers, because she has a lawyer.

He works for her for free.

And, she did not cross paths with him until after this happened.

But she still had time to appeal. Instead, the lawyer who is working for her instead pushed an impossible third-party petition drive that required 2 1/2 times the number of signatures she couldn't get the first time, and now he's pushing and even less plausible write-in campaign.

All instead of finding 22 signatures that could have put her on a primary ballot. It would have been far easier, and more beneficial to her cause, to have appealed. Instead, she's going rogue.

Let me tell you another race Mr. Ostrowski is in: the 59th state senate race (Dale Volker's seat). He backed Dave DiPietro-- who lost. So, what does he do? Continue to fight for him. He's now appealing a petition challenge for Mr. DiPietro's "Tea Party" line. The very thing he did not do for Volk. The difference? DiPietro is running a third-party challenge; Janice Volk, at the time, was not.

Janice Volk made the mistake of allowing a Libertarian Party operative to hijack her campaign under the guise of a pro bono lawyer. This is classic LP work-- claim to be for limited government but constantly attack Republicans more than Democrats. At least the GOP is a little closer than the Dems on that front.

Grr to typos. an*, not and

Is there proof that they were filed correctly? If so I could change my mind.

Well yes, we have all of the petition signatures and the stamped date that the BOE received the petitions and signatures.

That only verifies that they were filed. Not filed correctly.

This is getting a bit ridiculous, you can only ride a dead horse for so long and Volk clearly seems intent on seeing this through until November, so let's hear what she has to say and let the voters decide. I for one am on the fence between Zeller and Volk.

I'm more interested in the candidates' stances on the social issues now. Is or isn't Reed Pro-Life? (Can we get some real authority on this, Rotten?).

Zeller has been forthright about his pro-choice stance. In large part, I have found that you shift on these issues the older you get through raising your own family and realizing just how precious life is.

I keep hearing that Volk is the only pro-life candidate. Does this mean that Volk would deny a 15 year-old girl who was raped by her father the right to an abortion? Or if she didn't deny it then she would make the 15 year-old tell her mother?

Don't teenagers have the right (and intelligence) to make these decisions without any input from the government or their parents, even though they cannot legally drink a Bud Light until they are 21 or fight for our country until they are 18?

Just curious and trying to open up the conversation.

I'm not sure what you would be looking for. The proof would be each petition then and if there was a challenge for you to review. The BOE is the one that made the decision and it was for a lawyer to fight in court. So, not sure what you need.

Enough. Volk should rely on YouTube videos since she does so well in that media, and invest heavily in ads which largely convey nothing other than the url-access address. The more people see and hear this dynamo, the more buzz--and presumed write-in votes--will be generated. And, stereotyping in a very unfair way, those in our district who are web-savvy presumably are more patient and gadget-savvy to begin with-=---thus making them a further ripe market for the mechanics of a write-in. If she were to do this, with a compelling SERIES on a weekly basis of such videos, I bet she could lift her standing in the polls by 3-4% each week.

EXCUSE ME? Does so well in what media? Haven't seen anything to support that statement. Can you direct anyone exactly to which you refer? And, a dynamo? I saw her recently and she was very subdued, spoke in an almost inaudible voice. Boy, that sure conflicts with what you say.

On the other hand, she's SOOOO much better than Reed, why am I complaining?......

Take a listen of that, it is Volk at a Tea Party meeting a few weeks ago.


Where do Reed and Volk stand on the Rep's new "Pledge to America"? Have either one of them read it all the way through?

Look's like Zeller is gonna take this one!

This video describes Volk's campaign:

Just sayin'.

it's true. she is sort of fearless, given the things she's said which you know must be driving the Republican bosses crazy.

Just got back from an Ontario County Tea Party last night. Great meeting and great turn out! Most of the members loved Janice, very encouraging! Jan will be at the Cohocton Fall Foliage Festival this weekend Sat afternoon and all day Sunday. Stop by 11 S. Main Street in Cohocton!

I like Zeller's commercial a lot more than Reed's
Reed's is just another political add with staged actors and a voice over.

Zeller's ad is fantastic.

Yes - he is (as his ad states)
"the real deal"