Today's Corning Leader reports that Assemblyman David Koon is "willing to run" for the 29th seat. Koon is from Perinton, a Rochester suburb at the Northernmost end of the district.
Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan, Massa's choice for the set, is also sounding like a candidate.
Koon said he would abide by the choice of county chairs, so the Democrats may be able to avoid a primary for this seat.
Koon is not my Assemblyman, but I've watched him over the years, and he seems better than average. He has a very compelling personal story: his political career was sparked by the abduction and murder of his daughter, and he's sponsored legislation related to that crime, such as mandating the ability to locate 911 cell phone callers automatically.
Koon's son Jason is mayor of East Rochester. He won that seat in a contentious election against a crony-filled village government, and he's been cleaning house. I think that he'd be an overall plus in Koon's story, but the byzantine politics of that town might deliver up a some pseudo-scandals that could occupy the media.
I still don't think that a Rochesterian can win this seat, but Koon would be viable candidate.
In a blizzard of conflicting information, rumor and innuendo, sometimes one needs to think about human nature and political tradition. Philbrick at Mustard Street makes a good point on that score.
In short, knowing what we all know about Eric Massa, the way he has used his history as a cancer survivor, and his instinct for the dramatic, wouldn't you expect a Lou Gehrig moment if he were resigning because of a serious health issue? Do you really think that he'd exit stage right after a hasty press conference?
Yesterday, Massa was Mark Foley.
Today, this is the best The Hill can muster:
We don’t yet know what kind of trouble Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) has with the House ethics committee, but it’s going to dog Democrats for now. If he is to believed, he said something rather “salty” to a staffer. Democratic aides, meanwhile, said that the staffer was made to feel “uncomfortable.”
No person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the age of twenty five years, and been seven years a citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an inhabitant of that state in which he shall be chosen. [emphasis mine]
In other words, there is no requirement that a person running for Congress live in the district they want to represent, only the state.
Talking Points Memo has the terse announcement from the House Ethics Committee, confirming an investigation of Congressman Eric Massa.
There's a shoe left to drop in this whole mess, and it belongs to a man named Ronald Hikel. Hikel is the former deputy chief of staff and legislative director named in this Politico story who took the complaint to the House Ethics Committee. In Sean Carroll's interview with Massa's current chief of staff, that person said that the Massa office had not seen the complaint. But Steny Hoyer said that he informed the Massa office to forward a complaint to the Ethics Committee.
Connecting the dots, maybe Hoyer forgot that Hikel had quit Massa's office, or perhaps Hikel quit over the allegations. In either case, Hikel may well play the role that Kirk Fordham, Foley's ex-chief of staff, played in that case. Fordham blew the whistle on Foley, but the leadership didn't listen in that case. They apparently did here.
Related to the Foley comparison, Jay Newton-Small at Time's Swampland blog gives 5 reasons why Massa is no Mark Foley. Some excitable Democratic aide made a comment that the allegations against Massa would have the same impact on Democrats as the Foley matter did on Republicans. It won't. Massa wasn't hitting on underage pages, he might well be sick and, most importantly, Foley's pattern of behavior was condoned by Republican leadership for a long time, whereas the Democratic leadership apparently referred the first complaint to the House Ethics Committee.
The Foley remark was interesting because it typifies the type of panic that seems to grip Democratic staff and members whenever Democrats hit a little bump in the road. That panic is the opposite of leadership, it's unseemly, and Democrats will continue to hit below their weight as long as it remains part of the House culture.
Today's news is full of discussion of area Republicans who think they have some sort of entitlement to run for the 29th seat, now that it's become an easy get instead of a hard slog. Before anyone gets excited about any of these candidates, let's review a few facts.
First, the spectre of re-districting hangs over this seat. In 2002, some furious gerrymandering left Western New York with three Republican incumbents. Only one of those districts (NY-26) is currently held by a Republican, and given current registration trends, it's unlikely that any Republican gimme districts will be left. Any Republican running for the 29th seat has to face the possibility that they'll be redistricted out of a job in two years.
Second, every single member of the New York State Legislature is politically stunted by unopposed elections and easy fundraising. When they step into a real political environment, they end up like Randy Kuhl -- easily led by party hacks, mediocre at fundraising, and bound to make gaffes. George Winner's recent weak performance in the Pulteney frack water controversy is a great example. When he wasn't absent, he was late to the party, and when he finally got to the party, he was uninformed and unimpressive.
Finally, the Southern Tier representative has a special position in the political life of the region. He's the top of the foodchain, a valued consultant to local media on all matters political, and a sought-after guest at civics classes and community events. There's no way that someone from Rochester is going to get a lot of votes in the Tier. Maggie Brooks is popular in Rochester. She's an interloper in the Tier.
Put that all together and it's hard to find a better candidate than Tom Reed. Senator Cathy Young seems a little more intelligent than the average New York Legislator, which is not high praise. Young has also denied interest in the seat. Chemung County Executive Tom Santulli is another possibility -- he gets good press and lives in the right place.
Whatever I think of Reed's politics and political skills, he did have the grit to get into a race that he was pretty sure to lose. Now that the race has opened up, I doubt that he's going to roll over. With the brutal New York State primary schedule, Republicans might want to avoid a costly, reputation-draining contest by keeping Reed as their candidate.
Conservative radio personality Bob Lonsberry claims to have details of Eric Massa's previous history of sexual harassment in the Navy. It is from two unnamed sources, so there it is, for what it's worth.
Sean Carroll at 13-WHAM has spoken at length with Massa's chief of staff, Joe Racalto. Racalto denies that Massa's office has seen any ethics complaint. This contradicts what Steny Hoyer said last night.
Today's Corning Leader has two stories:
Bob Recotta files on the resignation, including Shawn Hogan's remark “If he was referred to the Congressional Ethics Committee don’t you think we’d have known about it by now?” (I think we just found out, Shawn.)
Joe Dunning's story covers the possible new entrants into the race. Maggie Brooks, the Monroe County Executive, is sounding like an interested Republican.
The AP has just reported that House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer has confirmed that he was aware of a report of harassment from one of Massa's staff members. Hoyer directed Massa to forward the report to the House Ethics Committee, and that was done the week of February 8.
Tonight all of the 29th Congressional District will have Eric Massa and his family in their hearts and prayers. His reoccurrence of cancer is devastating and I wish him a full recovery. I know firsthand that Eric is a fighter and I have full confidence that he will beat cancer once again.If you can't feel the Kuhlmentum, here's Tom Reed's statement:
I have received numerous calls and emails today regarding my political future and I truly appreciate all of those who believed in me and supported me during my 28 years of public service. I will address any political decisions in the future but right now it is important for Eric to get the treatment that he needs to recover.
I was saddened to hear that Congressman Massa’s health will preclude him from running for re- election. While the Congressman and I disagreed on political issues, I respect his military and public service and wish him the best.
Our campaign continues moving forward with a message of smaller government and resistance to government takeovers of health care and private enterprises. We began this campaign to bring common sense and financial responsibility to Washington and we will continue to November. I have spoken with county Republican chairs and all have pledged continued support for our campaign. We look forward to welcoming a Democratic candidate to the race.
Politico and The Atlantic are reporting that the reason Massa resigned was allegations of sexual harassment from a male aide. Massa denied these allegations in his statement and to a Talking Points Memo reporter.
According to the Star-Gazette, Massa has asked Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan to run in his place. Hogan is almost the only Democrat in the Southern Tier who has any kind of a profile, so he's the logical choice.