The Fighting 29th

All about New York's 29th Congressional District

Tom Reed's announcement received coverage in the Corning Leader, City Newspaper, WENY and WETM.

From WENY:

Reed says his platform will be built on three planks, personal accountability and responsiblity, less government, and lower taxes. “Government should not be the end all and be all,” said Reed, “it should guarantee opportunity for someone to succeed not their individual success.”

All well and good, but Reed had better put some meat on those bones. Which government should be limited? What taxes should be lowered, and which services will we cut when we cut taxes?

We're going to learn a lot about Tom Reed in the next few weeks and months. Reed finds himself in much the same spot as Eric Massa did in 2005. He's unknown in most of the district, never held a legislative position, and he doesn't have a lot of money. How Reed introduces himself will tell us a lot about the kind of candidate he is, and whether he has a chance to beat Eric Massa.

My main interest is whether Reed will be a New York Republican or a rump Republican. In other words, does he have the independence to craft his own message? If he has the originality and ability to be a new kind of Republican, this might be an interesting election. Otherwise, Reed's run will probably be over very soon.

Reed's first challenge will be to articulate clear positions on the issues of the day that are acceptable to a majority of voters. With a hard core of Southern conservatives in control of the Republican party, Northeast Republicans are constantly torn between the dictates of their party and what voters will accept. Jim Tedisco's surprising defeat in NY-20 is a good object lesson of how this bind can't be finessed. Tedisco was caught between the rock of Republican opposition to the stimulus bill, and the hard place of the electorate's desire for such a bill. Tedisco's early hemming and hawing on how he would have voted probably cost him a squeaker election.

Reed's second challenge will be avoiding the tar pit of House Republican political incompetence. A big factor in Randy Kuhl's loss was his reliance on Republican advisors who gave him some terrible advice. Kuhl ducked debates, canceled town hall meetings, and doubled down on party loyalty when when more availability and a few votes against his party would have gone a long way. Kuhl also parroted John Boehner's talking points about the evil of a Pelosi-led Congress, which is procedural inside baseball that's irrelevant to most voters.

Reed will also have to come up with a positive alternative to Massa's positions. Republican attempts to provide an alternative have been almost comically ineffective, with meaningless charts, flowcharts and "budgets" without numbers. It's easy to treat every day like "opposite day" by putting out press releases that negate Democrats' talking points. Reed needs to do something more: tell us what he's for, not just what he's against.

In his first six months, Eric Massa has done quite well. He's on the right committees, he's voting for his district at times when it upsets his leadership, and his service offices are in-place and working well. Reed and the Republicans need to bring their A-game, and I hope they do, because we need hotly contested Congressional races in order to have a functioning democracy.

The Democrat and Chronicle has has the news of Tom Reed's announcement. The Star-Gazette notes that the state Democratic committee had a press release out one minute after Reed's announcement.

Two very reliable sources tell me that Tom Reed will announce his candidacy as a Republican candidate for the 29th seat tomorrow. Reed will announce in Corning and Pittsford, and will receive the full support of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

Today's Corning Leader front page [pdf] (and jump [pdf]) has a story about the NRCC soliciting donations for Corning Mayor Tom Reed. Reed has not formally announced but it sounds like he's in.

The National Republican Congressional Committee's Executive Director, Guy Harrison, tells political site Five Thirty Eight:

What were are really going to focus on in New England and really all over the country is going after candidates who fit each district and candidates who can really win each district. Some of those prospects include Tom Reid [sic], the Mayor of Corning, NY to run in NY-29 [...]

When a Republican party operative as prominent as Harrison mentions Reed, it's a good indicator that none of the region's political heavyweights are interested. It sounds like the run for NY-29 is Reed's if he wants it.

Eric Massa will have a press conference tomorrow to announce the new Massa broadband bill. I might not be able to attend, but the ever-capable Stop the Cap founder Phillip Dampier will be one of the speakers at the conference, and I'm sure he'll have some coverage.

Reader Elmer sends today's Corning Leader editorial page [pdf], which includes a op-ed from Eric Massa, explaining his recent "No" votes.

I took a look through Tom Reed's YouTube channel and his campaign website to get an idea of what kind of challenge he'd provide Eric Massa if he decides to run.

Reed seems like a reasonable, affable guy, and he's probably well-liked in Corning. Though he was running against a fairly divisive blowhard, Frank Coccho, Reed wisely chose to show, not tell, to get the point across that he'd be a better Mayor. The statements I could find were generally positive and forward-looking.

Even though he makes a good impression, Reed is neither photogenic nor charismatic. Massa isn't either, and political contests aren't beauty pageants. But Reed is going to have to catch the attention of 29th district voters who don't know him, and he'll have to do it through TV and other media.

A fair amount of Reed's appeal in Corning was that he has deep roots in the community. Amo Houghton's endorsement [video], for example, made this point. (That video, by the way, is worth watching just to see Amo in action.) Reed's family history will probably attract some Corning votes, but Steuben County is already a lock for any Republican. His roots won't take him far in the Rochester suburbs.

What's most important about Reed is what he isn't and what he might be. He clearly isn't a hack Assembly or Senate member who's been marinating in the Albany sewer so long that he will bobble a campaign before it gets started. Jim Tedisco, who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in NY-20, is a good example of that kind of politician.

Reed might be willing to buck the rump of the Republican party, which is currently running purity tests and expelling anyone with even a hint of centrism. If he's going to win, Reed needs to be able to throw away the John Boehner gameplan, which only works in Red states, and explain to voters how he'll be more like Amo and less like Rush. Since Reed has made no statements on any Federal or State issue, his positions on the topics that will shape the 2010 campaign are unknown.

The New York Republican Party needs more young, reasonable politicians. Reed might be one of them, and though he faces an uphill climb in NY-29, he might be the Republican's best shot in 2010.

I opened up my D&C RSS feed this morning and found the following:

The story doesn't repeat the claim about the character of the shooters.